As the war unfolds, Tech experts offer their thoughts on what happened, what comes next, and how the U.S. will be involved.
In the month following Hamas’ attacks in Israel, the war between the two sides has continued to escalate. As casualties increase, humanitarian concerns grow, and calls for a cease-fire mount, the situation remains volatile.
Since the war began with the killing of an estimated 1,200 Israelis and the taking of more than 200 hostages by Hamas, the Gazan death toll is estimated to have surpassed 11,000, and over 1.6 million residents have been displaced. Israel has rejected cease-fire calls to this point, but a deal with Hamas resulted in a four-day pause in fighting in exchange for the release of 50 hostages. Israel has begun to release about 150 Palestinian prisoners — primarily women and children — and is allowing up to 300 aid trucks into Gaza. An additional two-day pause was also brokered, including the release of an additional 20 Israeli hostages.
The deal offers hope that “there are lines of communication open, which, as we’ve just seen in the U.S.-China context, is important in and of itself between hostile or adversarial actors,” said Rachel Whitlark, political scientist and associate professor of international affairs in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs.
“It’s not clear that the current developments signal anything about what might happen with the additional hostages being held by Hamas or those being held by Palestinian Islamic Jihad. And the deal will likely allow Israel to continue its military campaign to rid itself of a neighbor committed to its destruction, perhaps more aggressively given that these hostages have been released.”
Identifying an End Goal
The temporary peace will be welcomed in the region that has seen nonstop violence since Oct. 7, but when the fighting resumes, the pressure on Israel to identify an end goal will increase, explains Lawrence Rubin, associate professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs.
“What happens the day after you topple Hamas? But also, what happens if Israel doesn’t eliminate Hamas?” said Rubin, who recently traveled to the Middle East for the IISS Manama Dialogue. “Another sticking point is that many Arab leaders are publicly unwilling to discuss any post-conflict scenario until the fighting stops. Leaders in Egypt and Jordan, for example, face populations who would view discussions about their countries’ participation in a post-conflict Gaza as allowing Israel to complete its destruction of Gaza. Arab leaders don’t want to be held responsible for cleaning up Israel’s military operation.”
Hamas’ relationship with the Jewish state complicates any large-scale political compromise with the organization.
“Hamas is not an entity that even believes in a two-state solution. It is bent on Israel’s destruction and is unlikely to relinquish power. Israel has vowed to eliminate Hamas. A long-term political compromise at this stage seems highly unlikely,” Rubin said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently reiterated the intent to “destroy Hamas,” and said Israel would maintain “overall military responsibility” in Gaza until it can ensure that there is no resurgence of terrorism in the region. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken affirmed the administration’s position that Gaza cannot continue to be run by Hamas following the war. He also shared that conversations took place prior to the hostage deal, directing Israeli leaders to minimize harm to Palestinian civilians and increasing aid into Gaza.
Whitlark explains that the U.S. has effectively used its modest tools of persuasion and diplomatic pressure to attempt to modify behavior in the war, yet faces additional challenges in its handling of multiple conflicts around the globe.
“The Biden administration is juggling tensions both within the Democratic Party and with the Israeli government,” she said. “They are trying to manage the mounting civilian casualties in the conflict and the divisions in Congress, and among Democrats in particular, over U.S. support for Israel. This aid to Israel is also tied up with aid to Ukraine, another democracy that was attacked by a neighbor, that the U.S. is working hard to assist in its military campaign. Further, the administration had been putting significant pressure on Netanyahu to try to gain additional humanitarian aid, humanitarian pauses, and accept a deal to get some of the hostages released. Meanwhile, as we understand from the president’s Washington Post op-ed last week, he is working for the longer-term future for a lasting peace, protecting democracies from encroaching aggression, and regional and global stability.”
In an interview with a Lebanese television outlet, Ghazi Hamad, a Hamas leader, stated the group’s intention to repeatedly attack Israel “a second, a third, a fourth time” while expressing the organization’s belief that their actions are justified as victims of occupation. Along with the targeted attack on perceived military infrastructure, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed to have killed dozens of Hamas commanders, according to The Guardian. Israel’s ground operation began in northern Gaza in late October, and in addition to the mounting pressure to reduce civilian casualties, there could be major economic ramifications of a drawn-out war.
“Israel’s operational time has lasted longer than many would have expected, but it is still working on borrowed time. As international pressure on Israel mounts, U.S. leaders will continue to push harder for ways to reduce a rising civilian death toll,” Rubin said.
A Second Battle: Misinformation
As Israeli forces operate in Gaza City, the IDF recently gained control of Al-Shifa Hospital, which it asserts was being used to house a Hamas command center in underground tunnels. An initial raid of the compound revealed duffel bags filled with weapons, ammunition, and other military equipment, but Hamas continues to deny claims that the hospital is being used as a front and asserts that the IDF planted the evidence.
With many claims unable to be independently verified, Rubin says a “misinformation problem” exists as the war goes on, and the world is watching it play out through social media and the internet. “It’s almost to the extent that it doesn’t even matter that we’ve seen the truth when it comes out because people won’t believe it, and there’s denial about it,” he said.
He also noted that Hamas understands the value of disinformation and its ability to pit the U.S. against itself. The unfolding hostage deal will not end this conflict, Rubin says, predicting the information battle will continue until the physical fighting resumes.
Looking Ahead
In terms of further escalation in the region, Rubin observed that Iran does not seem eager to jump into the fray. Hezbollah, a terrorist group based in Lebanon, has launched several attacks, but to this point, no second front has been opened in Northern Israel. That said, Whitlark notes that a recent meeting between an Iranian leader and Hezbollah’s leadership reminds the international community that a broader conflict remains a possibility if the war between Israel and Hamas continues to escalate.
Source : Gatech
